What are the indicators that have become more influential on the U.S. dollar?
Dealers used to be the U.S. employment report for non-agricultural sector a key engine of the U.S. dollar, but that usually seems to be old, but if we go back to the memory of April 2005, has been to issue a report on the most important indicators from the United States, the U.S. employment report non-agricultural sector at that time was an important reason for a violent movements on the conduct of daily transactions on the U.S. dollar to other major currencies, but this was in 2005, to take a look now and see what is the most important indicators that have impacted significantly on the conduct of trading the U.S. dollar between the period between June 2005 and June 2006.
Was unexpected for all that the index of industrial Ism more influence on the conduct of transactions compared to self-employment, and because the rate of switching between self-employment and the industrial index Ism to the difference in the economic cycle, in addition to the change in the overall market trends, and also to the attention of Fed U.S. inflation rates further.
But before engaging in the order of those reports and indicators, we must now ask the question, why is the order of interest indicators or reports according to their importance? And the answer lies in that if I operated on the basis of fundamental analysis or technical analysis, you must know what is the most influential news to move the turnover, in addition to news of interest to some and not others according to their importance and impact.
Exchange between the centers of basic indicators:
U.S. dollar accounts to nearly 90% of the total transactions open daily, and, most economic data from the United States can be considered important, but in this study, which we are now trying to reduce the number of such data to many more impact on the conduct of trading the U.S. dollar so that the clients benefit from the well.
Must be noted that the importance of economic data due to the extent of their impact in relation to the time, in the sense that there are some reports or data the impact of the duration of twenty minutes for example, while other data may also impact the number of days, and when trying to arrange the data according to their impact on the extent of twenty minutes trading, we find that he is still the U.S. employment report for non-agricultural sector in the list of the most influential on the course of dealing, and shared that status resolution in interest rates, and then followed that order, where the data comes in the following trade balance, and inflation rates, and retail sales, which recently increased its importance, then the volume of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities, at sixth place after he occupied the third place last year.
And it should be noted that the trade balance data derived its strength from the result of the Fed to lift interest rates significantly over time considerably, and this was accompanied by a rise in oil prices and gold, making traders Ertqubon the U.S. current account data and trade balance, since in Between June 2005 and June 2006, we believe that oil prices have risen about 50%, while the gold in the same period of approximately 73% to the highest level reached during the 12 months, and as a result they were not a surprise that the rise the importance of indicators of inflation.
On the other hand, was the work of the following comparison between the order of the importance of indicators and calculating the impact for 20 minutes of trading after the publication, and were comparable between the two periods in 2004 and 2006:
Where he was one of the most important indicators of the impact 2004:
1 - self-employment for the U.S. non-farm sector.
2 - Fed decision on interest rates.
3 - foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.
4 - the trade balance.
5 - the current account.
6 - Sales of durable goods.
7 - Retail sales.
8 - the consumer price index (inflation rate).
9 - Net domestic product.
However, when looking at that list, but in 2006 the arrangement is as follows:
1 - self-employment for the U.S. non-farm sector.
2 - Fed decision on interest rates.
3 - the trade balance.
4 - the consumer price index (inflation rate).
5 - Retail sales.
6 - foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.
7 - Ism industrial index.
8 - Producer Price Index.
9 - domestic consumption.
Then work a further study, but the broader view and is somewhat broader, with a study of all the indicators and data to know the disposition of those indicators according to their impact on the course of dealing for a period of 60 minutes after their issuance, and no doubt it was not strange to see some of the indicators 20 minutes in the agenda fills the 60 minutes, but the difference between the two studies that examine the impact of a period of 60 minutes, shows the impact of news, not only the initial reaction of the market at the reception said, but also show the impact of news after the market uptake, as the factors of analysis technical as well, and therefore it is possible to integrate the impact of both news and basic technical analysis.
And when the order of indicators as important in the rate of time-60 minutes, we find the arrangement as follows:
1 - self-employment for the U.S. non-farm sector.
2 - the trade balance.
3 - the U.S. Fed decision on interest rates.
4 - the consumer price index (inflation rate).
5 - Index of industrial Ism.
6 - Empire State Index.
7 - Sales of durable goods.
8 - retail sales.
9 - Producer Price Index.
Index of industrial Ism:
Now turn to a time schedule of days and it is higher, and in that time frame, we find that the indicators that affect the course of dealing to this degree, the impact so powerful that it is to see a complete change in the market traders, and was one of the most important of these indicators since the 2004 and so far the U.S. employment report for non-agricultural sector, in addition to the trade balance, but there are some new data that have emerged on the scene is the highest positions of importance, and was one of the most important of those surprises Ism industrial index, and highlight the importance of this indicator is currently through several aspects, as it is passed on the first day of each month, in addition to the index to be issued by the accessories, components and accessories that contain data on prices paid, and information about employment, and it should be noted that the prices paid index may fortunate with great interest the recent expression of the rates of inflation, in addition to the importance of pre-employment data, where the components used in the employment index in the attempt to anticipate the consumer price index and producer, in addition to the attempt to anticipate a Fed decision on U.S. interest rates.
This compared to other indicators of the most important over the time periods on the 2004 and 2006:
2004 list contains the following:
1 - self-employment for the U.S. non-farm sector.
2 - Fed decision on interest rates.
3 - foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.
4 - the trade balance.
5 - the current account.
6 - Sales of durable goods.
7 - Retail sales.
8 - the consumer price index (inflation rate).
9 - Net domestic product.
While the list includes the following in 2006:
1 - Index of industrial Ism.
2 - self-employment for the U.S. non-farm sector.
3 - the trade balance.
4 - personal consumption.
5 - the consumer price index.
6 - index of the Empire.
7 - Net domestic product.
8 - an index of industrial Philadelphia.
9 - foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities.
Why do not some of the data pointed to other transactions such as:
There are many indicators do not significantly affect the course of dealing, and is, in some cases, although dealers expect that to affect the data in one way or another on the turnover, and one of the most prominent examples of such indicators on the volume of industrial production and consumer confidence indicators of the University of Michigan, and because of the lack of data on the impact of those transactions they are often issued at a time when dealers are waiting for the issuance of other data to attract greater attention.
The degree of fluctuation in the market:
It is worth mentioning that there is a cause or factor was used in the order of the indicators according to importance and impact on the market, and volatility is the result of the issuance of those indicators.
Looking at the frequency rate of the market in general, we find the points that the average volatility is around with the euro / dollar daily basis were about 111 points in 2004, and the strangest thing is that that rate had dropped to 104 per day during the past twelve months, and despite the fact that the decline in the rate was not very big, but the strange thing is that this decline was due to the low volatility in the days of the expected economic data, but are generally narrow the gap between interest rates between the countries of the world was one of the most important factors that led to a decrease in the fluctuation in the course of dealings.
This makes it more comparable indicators impact on the conduct of trading in terms of number of points that move after the husband said, during the years 2004 and 2006:
The order of the indicators during 2004:
1 - U.S. employment report for non-agricultural sector, 193 points.
2 - Fed decision on interest rates 140 points.
3 - foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities 132 points.
4 - 129 points, the trade balance.
5 - 127 points, the current account.
6 - Sales of durable goods 126 points.
7 - 125 retail sales points.
8 - the consumer price index 123 points.
9 - Net domestic product 110 points.
In the 2006 arrangement as follows:
1 - Ism industrial index 130 points.
2 - self-employment for the U.S. non-farm sector, 115 points.
3 - 114 points, the trade balance.
4 - 112 points, personal consumption.
5 - Consumer price index 109 points.
6 - Empire 109 index points.
7 - Net domestic product 108 points.
8 - Philadelphia industrial index 107 points.
9 - foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities 106 points.
Conclusion:
Is very natural to see a change in the importance of indicators and ranking in the lists of the attention of traders at a time when conditions change the world continuously, and also technical analysis that gives the client an overview of the direction of the market, but the analysis is also essential for a large part in determining the course of the market, Therefore, it is natural to see that some traders are not open to them only deals with the issuance of the news, while others prefer to avoid waiting for the market in the case of important news, but in that study did not aim to encourage dealers to something, however, noted the importance of index Ism where industrial should not be of concern to the U.S. employment report of the non-agricultural sector at the expense of this important industrial index, which has increased in importance recently and significantly.
